Along the Tracks

Tuesday, April 27, 2004

Rasmussen poll interpretation

Most observers of recent polls, including Rasmussen's tracking poll, have been focusing on the recent trending toward GWB in the horserace - important, yes, but not the only interesting items to glean.

Two other data points stand out to this nobody in Montpelier, Ohio:
1) Only 38 percent of people have a favorable opinion of the U.N. Kerry's entire foreign policy is based on a commitment to the "U.N. process," including political control in Iraq, proliferation questions, terror-fighting, etc. If the U.N.'s favorable is only 38 percent, isn't Kerry's foreign policy centerpiece a huge liability - not the strength he and some Democrats claim it is?

2) Prior to April 15, the horserace see-sawed back and forth every few days. Since April 15, Kerry has only led once, and by just one point - despite some very bad days in Iraq. April 15, hmmm ... seems like that date has a particular meaning. Oh yeah: Tax Day! Since people were reminded of their federal dues, and how Bush cut taxes while Kerry plans to increase them, Bush has had a consistent, if small, lead. I doubt this is coincidental.

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